Top 10 Tech Predictions for 2012

Well i hope the network here in the Ph would stabilize…I mean no ” up to – up to” in their ads.

Here are my comments on the predictions above:

-iPhone5, well this is obvious. But what will be the new features? What are the new game-changing stuff that Apple would like to pursue with its next iPhone iteration?

-2.5GHz dual-core, I beg to differ. NVIDIA is working on Tegra 3 which features QUAD-core (think eeePAD Transformer Prime). Higher clock speeds are not the future. More cores are.

-About SSD’s remaining expensive, again I beg to differ. While it will STILL be expensive for the general Philippine population, for the developed nations SSD’s are already becoming a viable option, economy-wise.

-Netbooks, they will definitely die. Even for developing countries (like ours), tablets have become so popular. Netbooks will die a fast, brutal death — it will just disappear, in a technological instant.

-Microsoft buying Nokia, while it may happen, is something I believe would be a STUPID move on Microsoft’s part. There will be NO benefits for Microsoft if this deal materializes. The WP7 partnership should suffice for now. This partnership is yet to bear fruit, so talks of a corporate takeover are not very sensible.

-Mobile internet speeds are something of a marketing gimmick today. They NEVER deliver these promised speeds (or, in my case, they deliver these speeds during off-peak hours, like midnight ’til 6am). I don’t care if they promise 10Mbps or 100Mbps. If telcos cannot deliver on their promises, mobile broadband speeds are BS.

-3rd telco rising, I believe this is highly unlikely. Running a telco business is EXPENSIVE. No, let’s not talk about running a telco business yet. BUILDING A TELCO BUSINESS IS EXPENSIVE. The towers, cables, licenses, etc. Unless this is, like, another San Miguel venture, this 3rd telco will not materialize.

-NFC has only gained some sort of traction in Europe. Even in the US it has barely gained any adoption. So yes, NFC will not really take off just yet (or ever).

-I am not aware of any Filipino tech start-ups so I will not comment on this one.

-Airline WiFi is something local airline companies aren’t very keen on jumping into because, when comparing with international flights or even cross-American flights, the travel time for local flights or even flights across Asia (HK, SG, KL, BKK) are relatively shorter. While airline WiFi is still highly possible, it’s not something of a priority for our airline companies, I believe.

for the start-up , my list are:
1. Exist/G2iX/Morph Labs
2. Orange & Bronze
3. Novare ( not sure if this is 100% Pinoy)

Same here, I’m sorry but I strongly “object” to most of Abe’s predictions here. To my surprise, I have exactly the same ideas with MCast.

#1 – iPhone5 – pretty d*rn obvious. the real question is when. there is a high probability of having it late fourth quarter of 2012 since Apple are now having a hard time hitting their usual one-iPhone model per 12 months (it took them 14-16 months to launch iPhone 4S from IP4).

I predict :
* new form factor (thinner than Motorola Droid Razr),
* 12 megapixel camera (to match the revered 12megapixel of Nokia N8)
* 4.3-inch retina display to match the “standard” Android smartphones
* Improved battery
* 2.0Ghz A5 processor
* No more glass-built. Sturdier material to replace the fragile glass material
* Fully-functional Siri
* And as the “real” distinctive feature versus its predecessor IP4S, it will finally sport an “microSD support for up to 32GB” — note that they will use their own Apple-version of microSD to make them look “novel” (e.g. the invention of Thunderbolt) — with this they will limit iPhone 5 to 32GB max only

#2 – 2.5Ghz?!? I dont think so. Especially now that its too easy to overclock Android smartphones. HTC has started developing multiple cores (quad?) since the launch of Sensation XE & XL. Others are catching up.

#3 – SSDs – C’mon! This is Philippines! the probability for price drop for SSDs is (IMHO) pretty remote in our local market. We may find something cheaper ontine though…

#4 Netbooks – are indeed doomed to die since the launch of iPad. And I bet Transformer Prime X (or whatever name they will come up for the new model of Transformer Prime) will be the new benchmark for tablets.

Speaking of tablets, i predict Kindle Fire will still survive for the first two quarters but eventually die by Q3-Q4

#5 – Microsoft buying Nokia — I dont think so. Nokia will somehow survive via Lumia models — but will eventually be killed and acquired by other phone manufacturers Q3 2013. So who will die come 2012? It’s RIM (Blackberry), which will be acquired by a top tier phone manufacturer or IT giant (Google, FB, Microsoft)

#6 -Mobile internet speeds minimum of 10mbps?!? Yeah, right… probably as a marketing gimmick with tons of mouseprint in any disclaimers

#7 -third telco rising — i dont think so. MVP has invested a lot lately — with TV5 and AksyonTV, plus the acquisition of Sun. And the latest, the rights to sell iPhone 4S which cost him nothing less than Php6.0 B. And there are rumors that he’s eyeing to buy GMA7 (which is close to impossible to be acquired by sheer pride) so he’ll be needing all the funds he can get. He invested (and risked) too much already. the SMART+SUN is already too close to monopolizing telco’s market share.

#8 – NFCs — will be adopted, but not this year (2012). Probably 2014-2015 at least. It will take global adoption + expensive upgrades to many merchandising companies before it will be considered for adoption in the Philippines. Not that NFCs will be used only to high-end phones, and our country is a third-world country only (no offense) so its a big gamble to invest for upgrades for merchandising companies. Adoption will slowly be flet in US and Europe by the end of 2012..

#9 – Pinoy startup — no idea (ikaw ba yan Yuga? hehe)

#10 – Airline WiFi — refer to NFCs comments. Pretty big investment for local flights which has 45mins-one hour average flightime…

My other predictions?

* Nokia to sport “superphones” @ budget price (which is the upcoming trend, and one of the q3-q4 roadmap of Nokia, and one way of desperate move for Nokia to survive)

* Bye bye Blackberry. Hello merging.. (like Motorola to Google)

*Galaxy Nexus (Prime) to lose the spotlight as soon as (1) HTC, Samsung and Sony (minus Ericcson) integrated Ice Cream Sandwich

*HTC to FINALLY sport new hardwares and better battery. will spearhead quad core era. Standardized over-the-ear Beats as audio bundle.

*Samsung is too stubborn to use cheap-plastic back cover to retain slimness. Will launch too many models for niche markets. Will slowly lose avid customers due to late and selective upgrades to ICS and Jellybean. Will retain top-tier status because of budget models that will flood the market.

*IPhone 5 to redeem itself and stole the quad-core fever by launching thinnest smartphone with 2.0Ghz dual core A5 (or higher) processor, highest display, picture,video quality, improved Siri, and expandable memory.

* New versions of Motorola Droid Razr — now with user-replaceable battery but will still have the Kevlar at the removable back cover

*Ultrabooks will flood the market

iphone 5? too soon

how ’bout the realization of “Vangie” !

i do not quite agree to the last two :}

if wi-tribe can release 4G phones, then it’s a formidable opponent to globe and smart..

I hate to admit it but #6 is just so obvious considering the current situation DSL is in right now. Higher speeds are coming out lately (for PLDT at least) but the the price is atrocious. It totally sucks, because wired connection is still much better than wireless/3G/4G internet.

I definitely hope that wireless internet will not kill wired internet, unless the telcos can deliver guaranteed promised speeds and seamless connections.

Looking forward to the emergence of another telco. Competition is always good for consumers.

more internet congestion, the less we download the faster the internet speed telcos give, the more we download the slower internet speed. look at telcos TOS. @12mbps=200php/180mb, 1-3mbps=unli data, 2mbps only 800mb a day, internet sucks sa pinas lol

My own predition: A laptop-tablet hybrid will come out this year, with the AMOLED screen, keyboard, and you can run windows 7 (or 8) on it. This device will totally kill netbooks once it comes out.

Lol, this is more like a wishful thinking than a prediction.

how about the ipad3? some say it’ll be out on the 24th of feb

By the end of 2012, Apple’s market share shrinks to 10% in the smart phone and tablets markets… beaten by Google’s Android 90% market share. We see the same PC versus Mac wars of the 90’s but this time Apple will never recover again.

solution to batt life problems?

#9 – m.budflick.com . superstart up, i rely on donations to make the site run lol. i think filipino “social network” that runs on its own basecode wont make it. most if pinoy so called “social sites” are either integrated to FB or used a commercial software, which is not “lasang pinoy” in a sense. for me, if you say start up, as in start up that you created the codes, you burned your eyebrows, even if it appears like the competition. as long as its not commercially prepared and then branded as “proudly pinoy”